Population Forecasting - Population forecasts for a district

files/images_static/practitioner.jpg Population forecasts have been made for a District and its villages by the Regional Planning Project. Table 1 shows the computations of the existing growth rates and Table 2 shows the calculations for the population projection to 2006.

Table 1: Computation of annual growth rates


Table 2: Population Projections




It is important to visualize the projections in order to illustrate the range of the forecast. Figure 1 shows the population projection for the District up to the year 2016.
Note the range between Variant 1 (natural population growth) and variant 2 (natural population growth plus migration). The gap between both widens over time. Unless there is a massive economic development in this district, it is unlikely that the current migration rates can be maintained. Variant 2, therefore, is absolutely the upper limit of growth.


Figure 1: Population Projection for the District