Population Forecasting  Principles and General Procedures
In general, data bases in developing countries on population development are limited. Simple population projections are, therefore, the only possible population forecasts. For a simple population forecast, using a spreadsheet programme (e.g. Excel) the following steps are recommended:
This simple population forecast will provide a continuation of the current trend, it disregards both natural and economic changes of the population development, which generally influences migratory patterns. In order to develop an “improved” population forecast the following steps should be undertaken:


The improved population projection will provide a population range for the projected period of time (either five, ten or fifteen years). In order to be able to further improve the quality of the projections it is worth making use of any demographic data that is available in the country (i.e. UN Demographic yearbook, statistical yearbook, etc.). In most cases assumptions have been made about the future demographic trends e.g. the expected development of the birth rates (as a result of family planning work) as well as death rates (due to health improvement programmes). Taking this data one can adjust the annual growth rates for the future and apply them in the population projections. 

As soon as new census data is available, the existing projections have to be updated on the basis of the new data. 
Comments:
Something missing, unclear, misleading or a typo? Help us to make this page better!
Upon approval, the MethodFinder team will publish your comment here (* mandatory fields):